Cite this paper:
Yugui ZHU, Yuting LIN, Jiansong CHU, Bin KANG, Gabriel REYGONDEAU, Qianshuo ZHAO, Zhixin ZHANG, Yunfeng WANG, William W. L. CHEUNG. Modelling the variation of demersal fish distribution in Yellow Sea under climate change[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2022, 40(4): 1544-1555

Modelling the variation of demersal fish distribution in Yellow Sea under climate change
Yugui ZHU1,2, Yuting LIN1, Jiansong CHU2,3, Bin KANG1, Gabriel REYGONDEAU4,5, Qianshuo ZHAO3, Zhixin ZHANG6, Yunfeng WANG7, William W. L. CHEUNG4
1 Key Laboratory of Mariculture(Ministry of Education), College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China;
2 Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou 511458, China;
3 College of Marine Life Science, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China;
4 Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver V5 K0 A1, BC, Canada;
5 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Max Planck, Yale Center for Biodiversity Movement and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven 06501, CT, USA;
6 Graduate School of Marine Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Konan, Minato, Tokyo 1088477, Japan
Abstract:
Climate change can affect fish individuals or schools, and consequently the fisheries. Studying future changes of fish distribution and abundance helps the scientific management of fisheries. The dynamic bioclimate envelope model (DBEM) was used to identify the "environmental preference profiles" of the studied species based on outputs from three Earth system models (ESMs). Changes in ocean conditions in climate change scenarios could be transformed by the model into those in relative abundance and distribution of species. Therefore, the distributional response of 17 demersal fishes to climate change in the Yellow Sea could be projected from 1970 to 2060. Indices of latitudinal centroid (LC) and mean temperature of relative abundance (MTRA) were used to represent the results conducted by model. Results present that 17 demersal fish species in the Yellow Sea show a trend of anti-poleward shift under both low-emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5) from 1970 to 2060, with the projected average LC in three ESMs shifting at a rate of -1.17±4.55 and -2.76±3.82 km/decade, respectively, which is contrary to the previous projecting studies of fishes suggesting that fishes tend to move toward higher latitudes under increased temperature scenarios. The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass could be the major driver resulting in the shift, which shows a potential significance to fishery resources management and marine conservation, and provides a new perspective in fish migration under climate change.
Key words:    climate change|dynamic bioclimate envelope model|distribution shifts|relative abundance|demersal fish|Yellow Sea   
Received: 2021-04-27   Revised:
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Articles by Yugui ZHU
Articles by Yuting LIN
Articles by Jiansong CHU
Articles by Bin KANG
Articles by Gabriel REYGONDEAU
Articles by Qianshuo ZHAO
Articles by Zhixin ZHANG
Articles by Yunfeng WANG
Articles by William W. L. CHEUNG
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