Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model -- Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2023,41(2):518-531

	Cite this paper:
	Guilin Liu, Xiuxiu Nong, Yi Kou, Fang Wu, Daniel Zhao, Zongbing Yu. Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2023, 41(2): 518-531

Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model

Guilin Liu¹, Xiuxiu Nong¹, Yi Kou², Fang Wu³, Daniel Zhao⁴, Zongbing Yu⁵

1. College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China;
2. Dornsife College, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90089, USA;
3. Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA;
4. Department of Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA;
5. State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China

Abstract:

The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China, and its northern coastal areas are facing severe risks. Therefore, it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge disaster. We constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold, distribution function family, and composite extreme value. The over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis, the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment, and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period level. The results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold samples. The results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis samples. Taking the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples, they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 years. The results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally consistent. When classifying low-risk areas, the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration, China (SOA, 2012) are more conservative. In the high-risk areas, the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.

Key words: risk classification|South China Sea|typhoon storm surge|extreme value expansion|over threshold sampling

Received: 2022-01-30 Revised:

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Articles by Xiuxiu Nong

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Articles by Fang Wu

Articles by Daniel Zhao

Articles by Zongbing Yu

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