Cite this paper:
Baiyu CHEN, Yi KOU, Fang WU, Liping WANG, Guilin LIU. Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2021, 39(4): 1188-1197

Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model

Baiyu CHEN1, Yi KOU2, Fang WU3, Liping WANG4, Guilin LIU5
1 College of Engineering, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley 94720, USA;
2 Dornsife College, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90007, USA;
3 Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara 93106, USA;
4 School of Mathematical Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266071, China;
5 College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266071, China
Abstract:
The accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters depends on the probability distribution model, and the calculation results of different distribution models are often different. It is very important to determine which distribution model is more stable and reasonable when extrapolating the recurrence level of the studied sea area. In this paper, we constructed an evaluation method of the overall uncertainty of the calculation results and a measurement of the uncertainty of the design parameters derivation model, by incorporating the influence of sample information on the model information entropy, such as sample size, degree of dispersion, and sampling error. Results show that the sample data size and the degree of dispersion are directly proportional to the information entropy. Within the same group of data, the maximum entropy distribution model has the lowest overall uncertainty, while the Gumbel distribution model has the largest overall uncertainty. In other words, the maximum entropy distribution model has good applicability in the accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters.
Key words:    uncertainty|information entropy|extreme value distribution model   
Received: 2020-08-24   Revised: 2020-09-27
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Articles by Baiyu CHEN
Articles by Yi KOU
Articles by Fang WU
Articles by Liping WANG
Articles by Guilin LIU
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